Markets outlook: March 19th
FUTURES DOWN: I was expecting a bounce as we’ve often seen after a -5% down day which we did see a bounce like 4 times these past two weeks. This time unfortunately looks like I was wrong so my SVXY calls 3/20 don’t look too great
LIQUIDITY: However look for a bounce on Friday because the Federal reserve is opening up their crisis primary credit facility, giving short-term 90-day loans to financial institutions, plan to be open for up to 6 months. This will provide more liquidity, again, this doesn’t mean we won’t go into recession and I think this will just be a dead cat bounce Friday, we’ve seen a lot of liquidity pushes that haven’t stabilized markets. Overall I think banks have been hit hard due to falling interest rates to 0% but this might help some financial institutions recover (bailout… Same with airlines).
PLAY OF THE MONTH?: Just in case you forgot, we are also experiencing a second black swan in this oil price war, $25/barrel is insane. This means USD is appreciating. I’m Canadian and my mother does FOREX, we saw out CAD go from 1.3 to ~1.45 in past two weeks. RMB same. How to capitalize? Short USO/OIL, LONG USD / UUP
As oil goes cheaper, priced in USD means you get more bang for your buck.
HOTELS BANKRUPT?: Bill Ackerman today said he is long and has been buying hotel stocks like Hilton. But, if they don’t survive this market, demand crashing, then many hotels will go bankrupt. I’m looking to enter some short/put positions. I think MAR has a lot of meat on the bone still with 25 PE while most other hotel stocks are already sub-9 PE, showing a lot of value.
If they survive, I will flip and invest long term
For me, not yet
After I see a consolidation at the bottom I will look to create a position into my favorite watchlist stocks, and that’ll be my new investment portfolio BTFD here. Let me know if you guys are interested in seeing my investment plays
NOT PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVICE
SOME OF MY CURRENT POSITIONS (not comprehensive)
SHORT: (SHORT OR PUTS)
Airlines: AAL, DAL, UAL, BA
Cruise: CCL, RCL, NCLH
Retail: CPRI (my best return so far)
Entertainment: IMAX, AMC, CZR, LVS, MAR
LONG: (EQUITY OR CALLS)
MSFT, BRK.B, AMZN, UUP
WATCHLIST: (to go long when we’ve found a bottom)
TSLA, NVDA, MSFT, WMT, COST, TGT, AMZN, AAPL, MAR, BA, ACTVI, TCEHY, BABA, IQ, JD, NIO,
HAPPY INVESTING AND STAY GREEN